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By 2005, one of the 10 most in-demand positions among global 1000 companies will be an online learning designer and e-learning will be an accepted practice on 70 percent customer websites.
Gartner forecast business-focused e-learning to grow 16.7 percent annually worldwide from 2003 through 2008, and to more than double in size to $619.4 million in new-license revenue by 2008.
The Indian scenario
Leading companies like Digital Think, SkillSoft and Mentergy are setting up operations in India. While the demand for e-learning solutions is low the market promises to grow as the government ventures into e-governance. Thus to be left behind in the e-learning race would only spell doom! A preview of the forthcoming developments and trends in e-learning will prepare organisations for implementing e-learning initiatives successfully.
The future of e-learning
Commenting on the future of e-learning Bill Gates said, "Computers will become passé." Sounds ominous for all those who have recently invested in new application systems. But what Gates indicated was that computers integrated with highly intuitive and advanced applications would be used in just about everything. Probably, users would even forget that a computer is involved!
This phenomenon is already visible. In a recent trade show a coat manufacturer promoted a new invention. Made of fibres the coat turned warm or cold depending on the external temperature. The manufacturer was not selling the computer that regulated the temperature. He was selling the coat! So would be the case with computer driven cars and machines. It's not the computer 'behind-the-scene' but the use of the product that drives the purchase. A similar trend is being replicated with e-learning. To understand the trend better, certain business issues need consideration.
Business- the trendsetter
A business organisation weighs the efficacy of e-learning from the delivery standpoint. e-Learning builds knowledge rapidly and effectively. It enhances skill development thereby reducing training related costs. Internal training aside, the current trend is to train customers as well. Customers are learning about an organisation's products and services online. In future businesses would begin to focus on the 'practicality' of implementing e-learning. With the hype about technology fading, managers would implement best e-learning practices that improve effectiveness and ROI (Return On Investment).
Moving towards simulation
The increasing use of simulation- based e-learning will perpetuate another important trend- the use of self-service applications. Consequently, even the training methodology will undergo a change. For example, customer service representatives typically handle routine customer services. An organisation can go online to train customers on its products and services. This would change their training programmes.
With online systems handling routine transactions, representatives need to be equipped with better skills. They also require the knowledge to handle complex transactions. Interestingly, this dependence on self-service is equally triggered by organisations wanting to increase their effectiveness and customers wanting to be empowered (with self-services).
With its ability to develop advanced decision-making and communication skills, simulation is already transforming learning circles. Learning managers are using simulations to standardise organisation-wide practices. As Mike Flanagan, vice president for research at Lguide states, "All good simulations are built on models of how business works. The goal is to raise the consistency of representatives' skills throughout the organisation."
Simulations for screening
Organisations are beginning to use simulations for pre-screening candidates. Simulation models that screen prospective employees are more prevalent today. Paul Stockford, chief analyst for Saddletree Research says, "Simulations can now help you determine pretty quickly if someone has the patience and aptitude to deal with the issues and types of customers who patronise a given deal." As the content and objectives of training are different, simulation-training programmes cannot be used for pre-employment purposes.
Effective pre-employment simulation screening measures a candidate's competencies and those that his employers are willing to train him in. Organisations usually avoid training for personality and problem solving competencies. If screening reveals that a candidate has adequate competencies, hiring him would be right. Subsequently, simulation-based e-learning programmes will help sharpen job-related skills.
More progress in blended learning
Blended learning isn't a new concept but needs to be used more effectively. There should be a perceptible shift from reactive to proactive blending. When e-learning was first introduced the trend was to put everything online. This trend gave way to integrating other training techniques to form-blended e-learning, which was a reactive solution. Today, organisations first consider the strengths and weaknesses of technology-based learning. They then experiment with what works and what doesn't and build a proactive learning solution.
From blended learning to integrated content
e-Learning literally drowns people in information. Learners have to cull relevant information. The trend of integrating content into the context, directs the movement of information from an e-learning vendor to the learner. Content comes in different forms with specific focus, as an e-learning analyst says, "One of the main purposes is to present bits of information as needed."
Measurable ROI!
With e-learning based training data can be captured on desktops. This would result in a more accurate measure of training budgets. "Without data interception at the desktop, you have to go out scraping up data from people's memories after training programmes. When you have it there in the database you can start doing some interesting statistical models to see what is working," says Flanagan. But the trend is to avoid using this data to calculate the ROI. Once there is evidence that the ROI is a direct result of an e-learning initiative some diminishing returns are imperative. Effective organisations would use this evidence to make better decisions-that is the emerging trend.
The theme party!
These emerging trends have an underlying theme of convergence. e-Learning initiatives in the future might converge with management tools. Tomorrow's managers would have a unified view of various business considerations, be it related to customers, employees or financial. Seamless integration of e-learning into organisational performance and other processes is what the future has to offer.
Smart and intuitive training will certainly morph the focus on technology. What would be in the forefront is the application and how it serves desired organisational objectives.
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